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引用 Second Hand Smoke(二手烟)  

2010-08-05 21:23:11|  分类: 烟草危害 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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本文转载自duchen0100《Second Hand Smoke》

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duchen0100Second Hand Smoke
I realize we all love our families and would probably do anything for them but what about this??????Let's all do our best to keep our quit going strong, if not for ourselves for those that are innocently affected._______________________________________________________________________________________________GLANTZ: How many nonsmokers does secondhand smoke kill?There has been a spate of confusion about the proper number for the deaths due to secondhand smoke. (Somehow I suspect that our friends from the tobacco industry are spreading statistical confusion.) This message puts all the numbers that are floating around in context. All the numbers that are being quoted come from Table 1.1 of the CalEPA report on secondhand smoke which was republished at NCI Smoking and Health Monograph 10. You can access the full report at http://rex.nci.nih.gov/NCI_MONOGRAPHS/MONO10/MONO10.HTMThe different numbers are due to two things:1. The CalEPA report presents a range of risk for some of the end points, most importantly for heart disease2. Some numbers that are being used do not include all causes of death due to secondhand smoke, in particular SIDS.The CalEPA estimates that passive smoking causes 35,000 to 62,000 deaths annually due to heart disease. Put in plain English, this means that secondhand smoke causes at least 35,000 deaths and as many as 62,000 deaths from heart disease. The CDC has used both of these numbers in different places. Both are acceptable,stop smoking, so long as one understands that these are the two ends of the range of risk. The best single number is the middle of this range (what statisticians call the maximum likelihood estimate), 48,Herbal cigarettes,500 deaths.CalEPA has a single estimate of 3000 deaths for lung cancer.Cal EPA has a range of risk for SIDS of 1900 to 2700 deaths; the best single estimate is the midpoint, 2300 deaths.(There are many other diseases that secondhand smoke causes, but death estimates have not been produced).So, here's where the numbers I have seen come from:38,000 deaths (from CDC MMWR) is the lower bound estimate of heart disease deaths (35,000) plus 3,000 lung cancer deaths. This is an estimate of the minimum number of deaths from just these two causes. 65,000 deaths is the upper bound of heart disease (62,000) plus 3000 lung cancer deaths. This is an estimate of the maximum number of deaths from just these two causes.53,000 is based on the midpoints for heart disease (48,500) plus lung cancer (3,000) plus SIDS (2300 deaths), which adds up to 53,800. As the midpoint and including all the diseases with death estimates, it is the most meaningful estimate.--Stanton A. Glantz
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